JANUARY 2008 

    Welcome to this website and Happy New Year to shareholders and staff of Mole Valley Farmers and its     associated companies.

   Introduction
   For many farmers 2008 For many farmers 2008 shows good prospects for much needed increases in returns from    the market, tempered only by unprecedented rises in most of their main input costs.  Apart from pig farmers whose    traditional resilience will be severely tested in seeking to recover from a deep trough in the pig cycle, the main    exception to optimism in 2008 lies with livestock farmers, and particularly those upland farmers here in North Devon    who are heavily dependent on sheep as well as beef.

   The January MVF Newsletter has provided shareholders with a summarised version of MVF consolidated accounts    for the year ended 30th September 2007 together with reports and notice of the 47th AGM on February 14th in    South Molton.

   The full version of the MVF Accounts includes essential explanatory notes to assist understanding of the figures,    and is available on request from the office, together with the four separate Reports and Accounts of the individual    companies that make up the Mole Valley Group.  Very few farmers have both the time and the inclination to wade    through all the pages involved, so considerable reliance is placed upon the content of the Chairman’s Report and    the Chief Executive’s Review.   It is natural and quite proper that these will highlight the success factors within the    year but a balanced appraisal and interpretation also requires negative aspects to be explained, with an indication    of intended remedies whenever possible.  Having read all the available information, this website offers an    alternative appraisal which leads to some of its conclusions differing, on several issues, from the official versions. 

   This preliminary appraisal only covers growth, profitability and cost considerations and is set out below under    numbered headings:- 

1.      The Mole Valley Farmers Group

2.      SCATS Countrystores plc

3.      Southern Valley Feeds Ltd

4.      Mole Valley Forage Services Ltd

5.      D & I Bridgman & Son Ltd

6.      MVF – the Parent Company

7.      Summary

8.      Conclusion

   1. The Mole Valley Farmers Group
   The Consolidated accounts provide the most significant performance indicators for Mole Valley’s overall activities,    with annual changes in growth and profit being the most important markers of commercial success.

   GROWTH      Turnover for 2007 was up by £16.65m to £183.5m, showing a 10.0% increase: £2.3m of this was    attributed to two months acquisition turnover from Bridgmans, leaving an 8.6% increase which is reported as    “normal organic growth”.

   Half of Group turnover is made up of feed, fertiliser and fuel, each of which suffered extra high inflationary price    increases from 2006 to 2007. The other half was, on average, subject to 4% increases, thus providing a weighted    average of around 9%. Hence the whole of the “organic growth” was, in reality, due to inflation and there was no    volume growth at all.

   PROFIT      Pre-tax profit of £1.72m shows a drop of £439,000 from 2006. This is explained as being partly due to    a provision “… in excess of £200,000” for distribution as retrospective rebate on selected farm input purchases    made by Ordinary Shareholders. The remainder is reported to be attributable to “efforts to lessen the impact of    huge price increases in raw materials” used in feeds. Both of these factors are commendable objectives for Mole    Valley as a farmers co-operative, but members who applauded introduction of the rebate when it was announced    in early July, will be disappointed that the allocation of funds for those who qualify for it is so small a proportion    (10.5%) of pre-tax profit, when 50% would have been a more reasonable expectation, and allowed it to be made    available to Trading Shareholders also.

   OPERATIONAL COSTS      Recognising that this third factor may have a significant effect on profitability, the    Group accounts have been examined to establish the extent to which omission of it has had on reporting to    members.

   The MVF accounting system includes manufacturing and delivery costs within the “Cost of Sales” line item and    confirmation of this is now provided by a new entry in Note 1 “Accounting policies”. Contrary to the undertaking    given at the 2005 AGM, there is no breakdown of Cost of Sales into its several components, so no comparative    figures are disclosed.

   Administration Expenses are however shown and are illuminating. The 2007 Group figures show these to have    increased by £2.7m (10.4%) over the already high 2006 figure. Comment on this in the Reports is limited to “…    admin costs as a percentage of sales have remained static at 15.7%”. Approximately true (2006 15.7%, 2007    15.8%) but seriously missing the point which is that inflationary impact on MVF turnover was around +9%, while    that on Admin Expenses would not have been more than +4%. Even if it had been as high as half the turnover    inflation then the expenses:turnover ratio should have reduced from 15.7% to 14.9%, without any increase in    operating efficiencies. The effect of the resultant boost of £1.35m to MVF’s profitability would have outweighed the    sum of all other factors.

   SECTORAL PROFITS/LOSSES      This heading recognises that these will constitute all principal components of    profit changes, and these are examined under the separate headings shown below. From a Group perspective the    correct allocation of overhead charges may seem irrelevant, but it is highly significant in the identification of    problem areas and of necessary remedial action. Note that the effect of these profits and losses is not additional,    since they are all components of the Group accounts.

   2. SCATS Countrystores plc
   Congratulations to those involved in achieving pre-tax increase in profitability as shown in the accounts of this    subsidiary. The 2006 profit figure of £255,000 has increased to £1.187m in 2007, an increase of 365%, which now    represents a remarkable 69% of MVF’s total profit. From the accounts it is seen that Admin Expenses have been    controlled at the 4% increase level, which shows that this is possible, and must provide a lesson for other sectors    of the Group. Real growth in sales has assisted the achievement, reflecting the wealthier rural clientele living in the    south east of England. If a similar result is achieved next year then SCATS will be in an overall position to refund    MVF the Parent company, for five years of funding provision, even including 5% annual interest on the £3m cash    initially provided.

   3. Southern Valley Feeds Ltd
   Mole Valley’s entire feed sector was transferred into SVF for the whole of the period of the 2007 accounts. The    increased pre-tax loss reported in the subsidiary accounts as £277,000 (2006 £100,000) does not include any    reference to the previous feeds divisional profit of £200,000-£300,000 which has been subsumed within the    integration process. The full pre-tax loss for SVF would not really be less than £500,000, of which £400,000 is an    increase over the 2006 loss of £100,000.

   When it is remembered that this sad picture is in spite of Mole Valley as parent company having:

    - initially funded about half the £8m acquisition in cash and then

    - paid the borrowing costs of the balance (and still does), and

    - selected a 20-year period for annual write-off of the £3m goodwill part of the acquisition

   then it is clearly a matter of urgency for Board action to redress this disaster.

   4. Mole Valley Forage Services Ltd
   This joint venture, 50% owned by MVF makes full use of the respected Mole Valley brand name in its title. Like    SCATS it has provided a welcome addition to MVF’s pre-tax profit line. The £104,000 shown in the accounts as a    positive contribution in 2007 is in fact more significant than that. This is because the previous Mole Valley fertiliser    division had regularly been showing annual losses. Hence the net gain achieved would not be less than £150,000-   £200,000 with these figures helping to put the modest scale of the retrospective rebate into perspective. Note that    the substantial 2007 promotional costs of developing sales in South Wales should bear fruit, so one can look    forward to even better results for 2008.

   5. D & I Bridgman & Son Ltd
   This most recent acquisition was only brought into Mole Valley’s operation for 2 months at the end of 2007, and    therefore its impact on the accounts was minimal. Sales of £2.3m were added to MVF’s turnover but a pre-tax loss    of £46,000 was not a welcome addition, any more than the £940,000 paid for the business by Mole Valley which    included £732,000 of goodwill classified similarly to Pye Bibby goodwill as an “Intangible Asset”. Write off of this    will not be completed until the year 2027, unless the Board invokes the new impairment provision in Note 1    Accounting Policies (see also Note 9 on Intangible Assets and Note 12 for full acquisition details).

   Until the rationale for this acquisition is explained it will remain very difficult for anyone to reconcile the expressed    intention to retain Bridgman’s price competitiveness and local service from five different North Devon locations    when an 11 month loss to 30.09.2007 of £253,000 was recorded – raising serious question as to future    sustainability. Clarification of a valid rationale will be necessary to silence the cynics who suggest that MVF’s    motive was to remove troublesome competition: at the same time it will show Mole Valley shareholders how this    acquisition will benefit them.

   6. MVF - Parent Company (also described as the holding company)
   The foregoing notes have been based on figures drawn from three MVF subsidiaries and one MVF joint venture, as    well as from the Group accounts. The Group however also includes a fifth corporate entity for which the Balance    Sheet is published as page 11 of the full MVF Accounts, headed “Company balance sheet”. Section 230 of the    Companies Act 1985 is cited as providing permission for not disclosing the P&L account of this parent (or holding)    company, but its principal components can be deduced with reasonable accuracy in rounded terms as Turnover    £80m, Cost of Sales £65m, Admin Expenses £14m, Pre-tax profit £0.75m of which half is derived from interest    charged to slow paying members. The main operations of this parent company include the nine long established    Mole Valley main retail Branches, Mole Valley direct sales from external suppliers including fuels, building    materials, tyres etc, together with grass and cereal seeds, and farm building fabrication at Witheridge.

   7. Summary
   The various sectoral factors involved in MVF pre-tax profitability in the year ended 30.09.2007, are based on pre-tax    figures as shown in the published accounts and are summarised below:-

   Pre-tax Profit/(Loss)                    £’000

   Profits

               SCATS                            1187

               MV Forage Services          104

               MVF Parent Company       752

               Totalling;                           2043

   Less Losses

               SVF                                  (277)

               Bridgman                             ( 46)

               Totalling                             ( 323)

   Group Pre-tax Profit                       1700

   Note:   Group profit is stated as net of provision of £200,000 for rebates.

   8. Conclusion
   This appraisal of Mole Valley's Report and Accounts for 2007 is incomplete in two respects:

       - There are a number of other points referred to in the accounts which have not yet been included for comment.    Watch this space!

        - More importantly, the analysis offered above is intended to be read as a complement to the official reports and    not as a substitute for them. Taken together, it is believed, will provide better balanced reporting of MVF's progress    over the past year.

   The two principal factors which have affected MVF’s profitability in 2007 have been identified as inadequate admin    cost control and escalating feed sector losses.

   The 10.4% increase in Group Administrative expenses amounting to £2.7 million is £1.7m in excess of a 4%    inflationary cost rise of £1.0m. Together with a SVF loss to the group of around £500,000 (in spite of funding    subsidy by the parent company), the combined £1.5million profit erosion identifies the two areas upon which Board    focus should be directed if this is not already being treated as a matter of urgency. The target for 2008 should be    a 50% reduction in both these profit eroding factors, thereby adding more than £1 million to 2008 pre-tax profit.

   This will not be accomplished without tough and radical decisions and determined implementation of appropriate    policy revision. If downsizing is appropriate in some areas so be it. Additional profitability will provide the way to    reduce mark-up in any sectors where MVF pricing is not fully competitive, while at the same time making provision    for significantly higher levels of retrospective rebate. On this latter point some policy change will also be necessary    in determining the relevant proportion of pre-tax profit made available for rebate. The 2007 decision of £200,000 only    amounts to 10.5% with £1.7m subject to £282,000 tax, leaving a balance of £1.4m added to the Group P&L    account.

   Unless there is some essential investment priority that will provide existing members with cost-effective advantages,    there appears to be no good reason not to allocate at least 50% of pre-tax profit to rebate provision. Ready    availability of cash reserves carries the risk that inadequate research is conducted prior to its use, particularly in    any acquisitions.

   On February 14th MVF’s 47th Annual General Meeting will be welcomed back home in South Molton 2:30pm    prompt at the Rugby Club. Let’s hope the home side turns up in good numbers!

   John James, 17th January 2008

   Postscript: Your corrections to figures used above and comments on analysis and conclusions drawn will    be gratefully received to john.jamesmbe@virgin.net or leave a message on 01769 574739

   PREVIOUSLY ON THIS WEB SITE

    John James established this web site at the end of January 2007 with the stated intention of encouraging     Mole Valley to “refocus its policy and concentrate on providing greater cost savings for farmer members     in the south west.”  He appointed himself as Editor !

    The full Menu is set out below with the majority of 'Memos' recently updated.  The introductory notes,         which follow the Menu, indicate why farming shareholders should understand where their own                 Cooperative is going and what you can do about it.